俄罗斯对华直接投资的贸易效应研究

Effect of Russian Direct Investment on Sino-Russia Trade

俄罗斯一直是我国重要的贸易伙伴国,双边贸易潜力巨大,双向投资日趋活跃,中俄两国经贸关系不断深化。中俄双边投资规模和质量的快速提高,对中俄贸易的发展起到了积极的影响作用。通过分析俄罗斯对华直接投资对中俄贸易所产生的效应,能够更好地促进中俄经贸合作战略升级。本文从贸易与投资规模的角度,选取1992-2008年的中国对俄出口贸易额和对俄进口贸易额作为被解释变量,俄罗斯对华直接投资流量和存量作为解释变量,设立了多元回归分析模型,用以考察俄罗斯对华直接投资对中俄进出口贸易的短期和中长期影响。结果表明:俄罗斯对华直接投资流量对中国对俄出口贸易影响不显著,俄罗斯对华直接投资存量与中国对俄出口贸易之间存在互补效应,俄罗斯对华直接投资流量与中国对俄进口贸易之间存在互补效应,俄罗斯对华直接投资存量与中国对俄进口贸易之间存在替代效应。

Russia has always been an important trade partner of China. The bilateral trade has enormous potentiality and the cross-border investment is more and more active day by day.h pushes forward the the reinforcement of Sino-Russian cooperation in trade and economy.The rapid improvement in Sino-Russian investment scale and quality is positive for the bilateral trade. Sino-Russian cooperation in trade and economy can be promoted to a higher grade by analyzing the effect of Russian direct investment on Sino-Russian trade. The exports and imports to Russia from 1992 to 2008 are ehosed as dependent variables and Russian direct investment flow and stock as independent variables from the angle of trade and investment scale. The Multiple-Regression modle is used to explore the short-run and medium to long-run effect of Russian direct investment on Sino-Russian trade.The results indicated that Russian direct investment flow has no effect hut Russian direct investment stock has complementary effect on the export to Russia, Russian direct investment flow has complementary effect but Russian direct investment stock has substitution effect on the import to Russia.