抑制我国房地产市场过度投机的政策研究

Study on the Policy of Inhibit Excessive Volatility to Real Estate Market

房价的过快上涨引起了社会的普遍关注,如何抑制房价的过度波动成为政府管理的重要目标。从中国房价的实际来看,很多研究者认为是投机推动了房价的较大波动。中国房价的上涨已经无法用价值规律和其他经济学原理来加以解释,很多城市的房价收入比和房屋租售比远远超过国际警戒线,如此离谱的涨幅背后,房地产投机炒作行为功不可没,抑制投机成为关键的手段。利用有关模型,本文分析了投机动力的产生机理,并且研究了房地产市场中过度投机产生的原因,包括投机的进入门槛低,地方政府、住宅房产的特性和不完善的租赁市场等对投机的影响等。根据这些诱因,从防止出现金融危机和削弱投机动力降低投机预期收益的角度,可能的政策组合包括建立和完善保障性住房政策、改革政绩考核指标、完善税制结构、取消预售制度或建立预售款第三方托管制度和完善租赁市场等。

The rising of real estate prices aroused widespread concerning, how to inhibit price volatility as an important objective of government. From the view of Chinese real estate prices, many researchers believe speculation promote greater volatility in prices. The rising of real estate prices can not be explained by value law and other principles of economics, the price-earnings ratio and rentsell ratio are far more than the international warning line in many cities. Speculation has become an important cause, curb the speculation is the key means. Use the relevant model, this paper analyzes the mechanism of speculative power, the causes of over- speculation, including low barriers of speculation to entry, local government, the features of residential real estate and the imperfect markets of rental to the impact of speculation. According to these incentives, from the perspective of preventing financial crises , weaken the speculative power to reduce expected return the possible policy mix including： establish and improve the policies of affordable housing, reform assessment indicators, improve the tax structure, ablate the sale system, and improve the rental market, and SO on.