基于GIS的华东地区高温灾害危险性分析

Risk Analysis on High-temperature Disasters in East China based on GIS

基于高温灾害危险性分析基本思路,运用Pearson-Ⅲ型概率模型进行高温强度—频率估算;借助ArcGIS地统计分析和栅格重分类工具开展华东地区高温灾害危险性评估与分区。研究表明:100年一遇情景下,华东7省市高温强度分布在0～73.25 d/a,且以35～65 d/a最为集中;高温灾害强度在空间上呈现出"中心—外围扩散"模式,即以福建省的南平和永安为高温中心,依次向外围递减;到江苏省和山东省则出现明显的高温"低值"区域。高温高危险等级分布在江西、福建和浙江交汇区域,低危险等级广泛分布在江苏、安徽和山东等地;随着重现期降低,高温危险等级逐渐降低,高危险区域面积逐渐减少。

Based on basic ideas of risk analysis on high-temperature disasters,high temperature strength-frequency estimation is conducted by Pearson-Ⅲ probability model.Assessment and zoning of the disasters in East China is carried out with ArcGIS statistical analysis and grid re-classification.The results show that the heat intensity in the 7 provinces and cities in East China distributed in 0 d/a～73.25 d/a of a 100-year return period with the highest concentration of 35 d/a～65 d/a.Spatially,high temperature intensity shows a center-periphery diffusion pattern as high temperature strength centers in Nanping and Yongan in Fujian Province and declines gradually towards the periphery to Jiangsu and Shandong province.The distribution of high-risk level is in the intersection region of Jiangxi,Fujian and Zhejiang provinces and with low ones in Jiangsu,Anhui,Shandong and other provinces.With the reduction of return period,risk levels and high-risk areas decrease progressively.