基于风速预测的风电场容量可信度研究

Research on Capacity Credit of Wind Energy Based on the Wind Speed Forecast

针对目前应用时间序列法进行风速长期预测时趋于平均值的限制,提出一种以年为序列,长期预测与短期拟合相结合实现风速的长期预测的方法。利用中国北方两个地区1996年7月到2010年6月的日平均风速资料预测了这两个地区2010年7月到2011年12月的日平均风速,并且与威布尔分布相结合生成该地区年小时风速。该方法可以体现风速的季节差异,并且更加符合实际情况。在此基础上,运用可靠性分析的方法进行容量可信度评估,为风电场规划提供了依据。

In view of the limit to mean value by using time series to forecast long-term wind speed,a method of long-term wind speed forecast by the combination of fitting short-term and long-term forecast wind speed yearly is proposed. Utilizing daily mean wind speed of two area in the north of china between July, 1996 to June,2010 forecast daily mean wind speed of the two and yearly wind speed by combining Weibull distribution between July,2010 to December,2011, which shows differences of seasonal wind speed better and proved more suitable to actual situation. Based on the new method of wind speed forecast, evaluation of capacity credit is worked out by reliability analysis, which underlie plan of wind farms.