我国农业风险的变化趋势及风险管理体系的构建

The Trends of China's Agricultural Risk and the Construction of Risk Management System

在对农业风险分类相关文献回顾的基础上,按照成本收益的定义构建了新的农业风险分类,将农业风险分为产量风险、价格风险和成本风险。在此基础上,运用5年移动平均法计算各类风险的变异系数,对改革开放以来我国农业风险的纵向和横向变化进行了对比。从纵向来看,3种农业风险均呈现越来越严重的趋势;从横向来看,我国农业生产主要是价格风险,其次是成本风险,最后才是产量风险。依据农业风险管理主体的分类,建议从微观、中观和宏观方面构建农业风险管理体系。

Based on the literature review of agricultural risk,this paper built a new agricultural risk classification according to cost-benefit method.It divided the agricultural risk into production risk,price risk and cost risk.Then this paper used five-year moving average method to calculate the coefficient of variation of various types of risks and compared the agricultural risk since reform and opening up in vertical and horizontal perspective.From the vertical perspective,the risk of three types of agricultural risk are in a growing trend;from the horizontal perspective,the most important risk is price risk,followed by the cost risk,and finally production risk.According to the classification of risk management subject,this paper suggests to build the risk management system from micro,meso and macro level.