城市化与经济增长关系分析——兼评中国特色

AN ANALYSIS ON THE RELATION BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: COMMENTS ON CHINESE FEATURES

本文结合已有的理论和跨国数据,分析了城市化和经济增长及经济结构转变的相关关系,观察其中中国的特殊之处。本文也结合中国数据预测城市化在未来一段时间的轨迹。根据世界各国的发展经验可以发现,城市化水平与经济增长服从一个统计上显著的S型曲线规律,而我国正处于城市化速度最快的时期。城市化的推进,有利于改善经济结构,促进国内消费需求和第三产业发展。相比于世界平均水平,我国在当前城市化水平下的投资率和第二产业比重偏高,而消费率明显偏低。我国的城市化水平、人均收入和人均资本之间存在一个稳定的协整关系。城市化每推进一个百分点,可以带动人均实际收入增长2.25个百分点。根据它们的动态关系,可以预计我国在2012年城市人口将超过农村。

This paper investigated the relation among urbanization,economic growth and structure by using cross-national data.It emphasized China＇s features and forecasted China＇s future of urbanization.The world experience showed that the urbanization follows S-shaped curve with economy and China＇s economy is currently in the fastest urbanization period.Urbanization plays an important role in the transition of economic structure.It boosts domestic consumption and tertiary industry.Compared with the world experience,China has obviously high investment rate,high ratio of secondary industry over GDP and low consumption rate.We found that there is a co-integration among urbanization,per capita GDP and capital stock.Per capita GDP increases 2.25% as urban rate grows up 1%.According to the dynamic relation,we forecasted that the population in urban area would exceed that in rural area in 2012.