农村秸秆产量的测算与影响因素分析——基于构建低碳农业经济的视角

The Measuring and Impacting Factors Analysis of Rural Straw Yield

在阐述我国秸秆的产量状况及利用发展趋势的基础上,选取秸秆产量、耕种面积、化肥用量、有效灌溉面积4个指标,依据1991～2008年《中国统计年鉴》相关数据,利用线性回归模型测算了我国农村秸秆产量,剖析了影响秸秆产量的因素,指出化肥的使用量是影响秸秆产量的重要因素。在此基础上,从低碳农业经济的角度,从改善化肥依赖性、开发秸秆再利用技术、积极推行秸秆气化技术以及提高农民低碳意识4个方面提出了秸秆综合利用的建议,以期能为决策者提供理论参考。

On the basis of expounding the status quo and using developmental trend of China＇s straw,4 indices are selected： straw yield,planting area,using amount of fertilizer and effective irrigation area.According to the relevant data of China Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2008,by using linear regression model,we calculate China＇s rural straw yield,analyze the factors impacting straw yield,and point out that the using amount of fertilizer is the important factor impacting straw yield.Based on these,in the perspective of low-carbon agricultural economy,we put forward suggestions of using straw comprehensively from 4 perspectives in order to provide theoretical reference for decision-makers： improve fertilizer dependence;develop straw reuse technology;popularize the technology of straw gasification actively;strengthen farmers＇ low-carbon awareness.