基于GM(1,1)模型的云南林业产业发展预测

Development Forecast to Forestry Industry in Yunnan Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

宏观经济环境的变迁、经济危机的影响、新材料、新技术的替代与应用、林产品消费观念的转变在一定程度上影响了云南林业产业的发展。如何从宏观角度预测和把握林业产业发展走势,对于发展以"大资源、小产业"为特征的云南林业产业具有现实意义。笔者以2000—2008年云南林业产业产值数据为依据,通过检验GM(1,1)模型的通过性与精度,建立林业产业发展产值的白化方程与时间响应式,对2010—2014年云南林业产业产值的发展趋势进行了预测。通过预测结果,笔者展望了今后5年云南林业三次产业增长速率与发展规模,比较了三次产业发展的快慢程度,并对未来云南林业产业发展预测与评价的分析方法进行了探讨。

Many factors including the change of macro economic environment,effect of economic crisis,replacement of new materials and application of new technology,transformation to consumption concept of forest products,had affected on the development of forestry industry in Yunnan Province to some extent.How to predict and grasp industrial development tendency will have practical significance to forestry industry whose character is＇big resources,small industry＇in Yunnan Province.Based on the data of output value to forestry industry in Yunnan Province,the author established the whitening equation and time response formula to the developing output value of forestry industry,what＇s more,predicted the development tendency of output value to forestry industry in Yunnan Province through testing the passing ability and precision of GM（1,1）model.According to predicted results,not only did the author look forward to the growth rate and development scale of forestry three industries and compared the fast and slow degree of developing rate to forestry three industries in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2014,but also discussed the analysis methods to forecast and evaluate the future development of forestry industry in Yunnan Province.