衢州柑橘潜叶蛾始见期的天气气候背景分析及其预测

Weather and Climate Background Analysis and Forecast of the First Appearance Period of Phyllocnistis citrella in Quzhou Area

分析柑橘潜叶蛾(Phyllocnistis citrella)始见期与天气气候背景的关系,并利用气象要素实况对其进行提前预测,以减轻潜叶蛾对柑橘的危害。应用1998—2009年NCEP/NCAR、气象信息综合分析处理系统MICAPS历史资料,对衢州柑橘潜叶蛾始见期进行大气环流、地面天气系统、低空急流等天气气候背景分析。结果表明:潜叶蛾早期(5—6月)和晚期(7—9月)迁移入侵,在4月份平均大气环流和平均温度场方面有明显的不同;潜叶蛾早期发生年初见日前,衢州连续受地面低压的影响;晚期发生年初见日与在浙江和闽北登陆台风有直接关系;在中国华南地区有西南或东部沿海有偏东急流出现,且维持2天以上。早期始见与前期积温、降水量、水汽压、相对湿度均呈正相关;利用气象要素实况建立潜叶蛾早期发生月预测模型和初见日5天滚动预报指标。

For relieving the damage from the Phyllocnistis citrella,the relationship between the first appearance of thePhyllocnistis citrella and the background of weather and climate conditions was discussed and a forecast system utilizing the observation of meteorological elements was modeled in this study.The atmospheric circulation,surface weather system and the low-level jet during the period ofPhyllocnistis citrella first appearance were analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the historical data of the weather information comprehensive processing system MICAPS.The first appearance of thePhyllocnistis citrella could be classified into two categories：the early period,thePhyllocnistis citrella first appearance in May or June,and the later period while in July to September.It was found that：the average atmospheric circulation and the average temperature field were quite different between the early period and the later period;if the ground low-pressure had last several days,it was mostly that thePhyllocnistis citrella would appear in Quzhou during the first period and the appearance ofPhyllocnistis citrella in later period was directly related to the landing typhoon which first occurred in Zhejiang or north of Fujian.The southwest or east lower jet always occured in south China or the east coast and maintains more than two days before the appearance ofPhyllocnistis citrella.The result showed positive correlation between the cumulative temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and vapour pressure and the first appearance of thePhyllocnistis citrella in the early period.The forecasting model of the appearance of the Phyllocnistis citrella and the index of 5-day rolling forecast were built by the observation of meteorological elements.