鄂尔多斯耕地变化及其驱动因子分析

Analysis on Cropland Change and Driving Factors in Erdos

利用1947-2008年的近61年序列统计数据,通过分析总体耕地面积变化及其区域差异特征,得出了以下结果:鄂尔多斯市耕地总面积变化呈波动后缓慢下降再上升之势。从1947年到1961年耕地面积变化呈波动状态,1961-1987年耕地面积缓慢减少,1987-2008年耕地面积变化呈上升之势。其耕地总量变化状态主要有3个增长期和3个减少期。伊金霍洛旗和东胜区的耕地相对变化率比全市小,杭锦旗和乌审旗耕地相对变化率较全区大,其余较全区接近。与全市耕地变化形态特征不相似的地区有南部和西部的乌审旗和鄂托克旗(包括鄂托克前旗),其他旗县与全市耕地变化形式相一致。自然条件、人口压力、经济利益、政策等因素的驱动力和阻力的平衡造就了本地区耕地变化。

By use of the statistical data in the past sixty-one years from 1947 to 2008,the changes of the total area of cropland and the characteristics of regional variation have been analyzed.The results show： the changes of the cropland area in Erdos present the trend of slowly dropping and rising again after fluctuation.The change of cropland area has a fluctuating pattern from 1947 to 1961,which declined from 1961 to 1987 and rose from 1987 to 2008.There are three increasing periods and three decreasing periods for the change of total cropland.The relative change rate of cropland in Yijinhuoluo Banner and Dongsheng are smaller than the one of the whole city,the one of Hangjin Banner and Wushen Banner are bigger than the one of the whole city,the others are near to the whole city.Wushen Banner in the south and Etuoke Banner in the west（including Etuoke Front Banner） are not similar to the morphological characteristics of the change of cropland in whole city.Other banners and counties are similar to the whole city.The balance of the driving force and the resistance from the natural condition,population pressure,economic interests and policies brings up the change of cropland in this district.