暴雨泥石流冲出距离预测

Predication of Rainstorm-induced Debris Flow Runout Distance

有效确定泥石流可能的危险范围对制定防灾减灾规划具有重要的参考价值。在对2008-09-24北川县境内发生的72处暴雨泥石流调查的基础上,通过对泥石流冲出距离的统计分析,提出了基于地貌学特征的泥石流冲出距离预测模型。模型根据泥石流沟流域面积的大小分类,给出了相应的计算取值参数范围。将该模型应用到汶川县城后山2条泥石流沟进行验证,计算结果表明,用模型预测的泥石流冲出距离比实际冲出距离稍偏大,平均误差值介于4%~11%间,这对泥石流实际冲出距离的预测是可行的。

How to identifying the potential danger zone is an important foundation for post-disaster reconstruction and debris flow mitigation planning in Wenchuan earthquake zone.Based on the survey and run-out distance statistics of 72 debris flows which occurred in Beichuan on 24 September 2008,four months after the ＂5.12＂ Wenchuan earthquake,this paper promote the debris flow run-out distance predication model according to the classification of debris flow catchments area,and give the corresponding parameter values.Finally,apply the model to predication the potential run-out distance in two debris flow gully located in Wenchuan country,the result show that the distance value calculated by this method is larger than the real run-out distance,the mean value of error was between 4%～11%,this d-value is reasonable for debris flow run-out distance predication.