中国劳动力供求关系形势及未来变化趋势研究——兼对中国劳动市场刘易斯拐点的认识和判断

Analysis on the Supply and Demand Relation Trend of the Chinese Labor Market in the Future

通过对我国当前的劳动力供求关系从理论到实践进行分析，可以判断目前刘易斯拐点还没有真正到来。随着中国经济的持续增长，劳动需求将会不断增加，而持续的低生育率将会导致未来劳动供给减少。为了对未来劳动供需关系有一个较为客观的判定，采用生产函数法，设计高低两个未来经济增长速度方案，在给定经济增长速度下采用永续盘存法计算未来资本存量的增长，结合对TFP给出相应假设，测算得到未来劳动力的需求。比较已有的劳动供给预测结果，即可预测我国未来劳动力供求的第一个刘易斯拐点将在2015～2020年前后出现。因此我国未来宏观经济发展应该适应未来劳动供求关系的变动。

By the brief analysis about the labor market demand and supply in China at present, we conclude from the points of theory and practice that the Lewis - turning - point has not come yet. With the sustained economic growth of China, the rural labor demand will increase continually while the labor supply will decrease because of the continuous lower fertility rate. For making an objective conclusion about the labor market supply and demand relation in the future, using the method of production - function and designing the low and high economic growth rate projects, the paper calculates the growth of the capital Stock by the perpetual inventory method. And then combining with the hypothesis about the TFP, it estimates the labor demand in the future. Comparing with the prediction resuh of the labor supply, we can conclude that the Lewis - turn- ing - point about the labor supply and demand will come approximately from 2015 to 2020 in our country. Then the paper clarifies that the macro economic progress should be in conformity with the alteration of the supply and demand relation in the labor market.