ENSO事件和太阳黑子活动与我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱大发生关系的研究

A Study on Relationship between ENSO Event,Activity of Sunspot and Outbreak of Nilaparvata lugens in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

根据1954—2010年海洋尼诺指数、1937—2009年太阳黑子相对数和1957—2009年我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱大发生年份的资料,应用相位分析、相关分析和关键时方法分析ENSO事件和太阳黑子活动与我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱大发生之间的关系。结果表明:我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱在太阳黑子谷值年的前1年和厄尔尼诺发生年的当年大发生的可能性较大;在太阳黑子谷值年以及拉尼娜发生年后的第4年不会大发生的可能性较大。此外褐飞虱大发生年主要出现在太阳黑子活动周期的下降阶段。前17年的太阳黑子相对数与当年褐飞虱大发生之间具有显著的正相关性。太阳黑子活动具有明显的11年左右的周期性,我国长江中下游稻区褐飞虱的大发生在局部上存在8～9年的周期性。

According to the data of oceanic Nio index during 1954 to 2010,the relative number of sunspot during 1937 to 2009,and the outbreak of rice brown planthopper（Nilaparvata lugens） in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1957 to 2009,the relationship between ENSO event,the activity of sunspot and the outbreak of N.lugens in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was studied by using phase analysis,correlation analysis and key-time analysis.The results indicated that the outbreaks of N.lugens were mainly found in the last year of sunspot valley years and the same year of El Nio years,the possibility of no-outbreak in sunspot valley years and in the fourth year after La Nia years was greater.In addition,the outbreak years of N.lugens mainly appeared at the declining stage of sunspot cycle.There was significantly positive correlation between the relative number of sunspot 17 years ago and the outbreak of N.lugens in the same year.Sunspot activity had obvious periodicity of about 11 years,and the outbreak of N.lugens had the periodicity of 8-9 years in some areas.