青海省畜牧业雪灾风险评价研究

The Snow Disaster Risk Assessment of Animal Husbandry in Qinghai Province

利用青海省1986-2005年积雪深度数据和1949-2005年雪灾灾情案例数据,构建畜牧业雪灾风险评价模型,拟合脆弱性曲线,采用GIS技术,评价了不同年遇致灾水平下青海省畜牧业雪灾损失风险.结果表明:(1)青海省雪灾致灾因子高危险性区域分布在祁连山、唐古拉山、巴彦喀拉山和可可西里山一带,多年平均积雪深度在5cm以上;(2)青海省畜牧业雪灾风险呈现南高北低的分布格局,高风险等级区域集中位于玉树藏族自治州的玉树县、囊谦县和果洛藏族自治州的达日县、班玛县,这是青海省雪灾风险重点防范区域.中高风险等级区域主要分布在昆仑山以南,唐古拉山以北的青南高原地区,占畜牧业总面积的65.2%.本研究可以为减轻雪灾损失,保障畜牧业持续发展提供科学参考.

Historical snow disaster loss data（1949-2005） in Qinghai Province was used in this paper to estimate the relationship between snow depth and death rate of livestock,the ＂vulnerability curve＂.Coupled with historical snow depth data（1986-2005）,snow disaster risk of livestock was assessed and losses of different return period were derived.The results showed that：（1）The high hazard regions are located in Qilian Mountain,Tanggula Mountain,Bayan Har Mountain and Hoh Xil Mountain.Average snow depth in these areas is more than 5cm.（2） Snow risk in Qinghai is higher in southern part than that in northern part.The high risk regions are located in Yushu County,Xianqian County,Dari County and Banma County.They are key areas of snow risk prevention.Middle risk regions are mostly in southern Qinghai plateau,which accounted for 65.2% of the total animal husbandry areas.This study can provide the scientific reference to reduce losses of snow disaster and protect the sustainable development of animal husbandry in Qinghai Province.