中美贸易差额的重新估算——基于所有权贸易核算体系的改进

Reaccounting for Sino-US Trade Imbalance: an Ownership-based Approach

作为全球经济失衡的一个重要组成部分,中美贸易失衡是当前世界经济运行中的一个突出问题。但是这种失衡被夸大了,尤其是在全球化背景下,以跨国公司为基础的生产、销售全球化导致当前以原产地统计为基础的贸易统计体系不能准确地反映两个国家或地区之间的实际贸易关系。基于此,在对原产地统计体系的缺陷进行分析的基础上构建了更能真实反映两个国家或地区之间贸易关系和利益的所有权模型,并据此对中美贸易差额进行重新估算。估算结果表明,所有权统计体系下的中美贸易差额相比现行原产地统计标准下的中美贸易差额有很大的缩小,能够更为准确地反映中美之间的实际贸易关系。

As an important part of global economic imbalances, Sino-US trade imbalance is a prominent issue in the current world economy. But the imbalance is exaggerated, especially in the economic globalization, based on the rules of origin the current statistical system can not accurately reflect the actual trade relations between the two countries or regions. Thus, this paper conducts a research on the Sino-US trade imbalance within the framework of ownership-based approach. The results of the study show that the foreign direct investment in China is responsible for Sino-US trade surplus. As a result, China’s ownership-based trade surplus is surprisingly small relative to the customer statistics.