持久收入假说与我国城镇居民消费——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption of Urban Residents in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-province Panel Data

运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验持久收入假说的三个假设。结果发现,我国城镇居民消费与持久收入和暂时收入均存在显著的相关关系,暂时收入的边际消费倾向不为零;就诸省份而言,暂时收入的边际消费倾向不同。进一步探讨了持久收入假说不能完全解释我国城镇居民消费行为的原因。"λ假说"检验表明,城镇居民消费对当期收入过度敏感,其呈现理性化趋势。

This paper examines three hypotheses of permanent income hypothesis（PIH）by inter-provincial panel data model based on two decomposition methods of permanent income and temporary income.The results suggest that there is a significant relationship between consumption of Chinese urban residents and their permanent income;that there is also a significant relationship between consumption and temporary income,and the marginal propensity to consume out of temporary income is not zero.Further,we explore why PIH cannot fully explain consumer behavior of urban residents in China.＂λ hypothesis＂ test shows that the consumption of urban residents is excess sensitivity to current income.China＇s urban residents show rational consumer behavior trends too.