现金流组成要素对企业盈利能力的预测作用——基于核心与非核心现金流

Predicting Effects of Cash Flow Components on A Business's Profitability: Based on Core and Non-core Cash Flow

本文选取757家沪深A股上市公司2006-2009年的数据作为研究样本,考察了在企业的现金流组成要素中,不同要素对于企业盈利现状的解释能力和对盈利前景的预测能力有何差异,以及不同要素的盈余持续性有何差异。研究发现:(1)拆分后的现金流比现金流总额对盈余和股票报酬具有更强的解释和预测能力。(2)核心现金流对盈余和股票报酬率的解释和预测作用比非核心现金流的要强。(3)核心现金流的盈余持续性比非核心现金流的要强。本文的研究结果为今后盈利预测研究充分挖掘现金流组成要素的信息含量和预测价值提供了实证依据。

The purpose of this research is to investigate the ability of different cash flow components to explain and predict an entity＇s future operating prospects and the differences between the earning persistence of different cash flow components by choosing the data of 757 listed companies of stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2006-2009 as samples.The research founded that：Under the direct disclosure method,disaggregated cash flow owns enhanced explanatory and predictive power to current and next period earnings and ROCE.Among all the cash flow components,core cash flows contain more information than non-core cash flows in explanation and prediction activity.Among all the cash flow components,core cash flows contain more information of earning persistence than non-core cash flows.This research could provide empirical basis for digging the value of different cash flow components in the prediction of Earnings fully.