当前中国通货膨胀的成因和对策

The Causes of the Current Inflation in China and the Solutions

当前中国通货膨胀形成的原因包括需求拉动、自然灾害、通胀预期、市场投机等短期因素和增长方式转变、经济结构调整、自然资源有限性、要素价格重估、成本推动等长期因素。本文认为适度通胀有利于当前经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变。当前宏观调控效果初步显现,短期还应继续实行适度紧缩政策,但紧缩力度需逐步降低;应参考一篮子货币,保持人民币名义有效汇率的基本稳定,实际有效汇率适度升值;应继续深化金融体制改革,完善货币调控机制;应保障农业生产,稳定供给和实现农民持续增收;同时还应严厉打击哄抬物价、投机炒作行为。

Many short-term and long-term factors contribute to the current inflation in China. The former include demand pulling, natural disasters, inflation expectation and market speculation, and the later include the transformation of the pattern of economic growth, economic restructuring, limited natural resources, factor price revaluation and cost push. The paper argues that moderate inflation is acceptable and helpful to economic restructuring and the transformation of the pattern of economic development. The effect of macro-control preliminarily appeares, and moderately tightening monetary policy should continue with gradually weakening force. The mechanism for setting RMB exchange rates should be further improved with reference to a basket of currencies to maintain nominal effective exchange rate of RMB basically stable and achieve moderate appreciation of real effective exchange rate. We should continue to deepen the reform of financial system and improve the mechanism of monetary control. We should safeguard agricultural production to stabilize agricultural supply and ensure sustaining increase of peasants＇ income. At the same time, stringent measures should be taken to crack down on illegal actions of driving up prices and speculating.