灰色-周期外延组合模型在地质灾害频数预测中的应用

The Application of Grey-cycle Extensive Combined Model to the Prediction of Frequent Numbers for Geological Disasters'

地质灾害发生频数的有效预测有着重要价值。用残差GM(1,1)模型对地质灾害频数总体趋势拟合,将残差用周期外延模型拟合,从而建立了地质灾害频数的灰色-周期外延组合模型。用2005年—2009年我国发生地质灾害频数进行了实例分析,并进行了一步预测。结果表明:拟合结果达到了较高的精度,模型预测是有效的,为地质灾害频数拟合与预测提供了一种方法。

The effective prediction of geological disasters frequent numbers has important value.The overall trend of geological disasters＇ frequent numbers is fitted with residual GM（1,1） model,using the periodic extensive model to fit the residual GM（1,1） to establish a mixed model of the Grey-Periodic Extension of geological disasters＇ frequent numbers.Taking frequent numbers of geological disasters from 2005 to 2009 in China as a case study,it makes a further prediction.The result shows that fitting results have achieved a high precision,and the model prediction is effective,especially in the short term forecast,giving one method for the fitting and prediction of gelogical disasters frequent number.