涡旋自组织在山东暴雨预报中的应用研究

The application of vortex self-organization in the heavy rainstorm prediction in Shandong Province

分析2000—2007年夏季卫星云图资料发现,在山东省区域性或大范围暴雨天气过程中,一些产生暴雨的中尺度云团的发展演变经历了由无组织到有组织、由不规则云形到规则云形的过程。为了更加凸现这种演变特征,对6例典型天气过程进行了分析。结果表明:造成山东暴雨的云团自组织过程多发生在7月;初始云块平均为5个左右;云团之间平均距离为200km左右;源地多发生在山东、河南、河北三省交界及鲁西地区;1h最强降水一般出现在自组织完成时刻或其前后3h左右;云团从初始生成到自组织并直至消亡,整个过程约11h。

By analyzing the summer satellite data from 2000 to 2007,it shows that some of mesoscale cloud clusters resulting in regional or largescale rainstorm in Shandong province experience the process from non-organized system to organized system,from irregular cloud pattern to regular cloud pattern.To study the features of the evolution,six typical events are studied.The results show that the cloud clusters self-organization causing the heavy rainstorm in Shandong province occurs in July,there are 5 pieces of cloud clusters on average at the beginning,the average distance between the cloud clusters is 200 km,most cloud clusters build in the west of Shandong province and in the boundary of Shandong,Henan and Hebei provinces,the 1-hr strongest precipitation generally happens within three hours before or after the completion of self-organization,and the cloud clusters lasts for about 11 hours from building over self-organization to extinction.