涡旋自组织现象在上海一次暴雨预报中的应用

Application of vortex self-organization theory on heavy rainfall forecasting in Shanghai

根据涡旋自组织理论的研究成果,通过对天气背景以及卫星、雷达等资料的分析发现,在2008年8月25日早晨上海地区发生的一场雨强为百年未遇的强雷电和大暴雨天气过程中,确实存在着涡旋自组织现象。地面中低压的发展与中小尺度涡旋的组织、合并关系密切,而中低压的发展导致了剧烈而集中的降水发生,进而造成了上海地区的这场特大暴雨。此外,详细阐述了在业务预报中预报员如何应用涡旋自组织理论的相关成果来改进和提高暴雨预报的时效和准确度,显示该理论在业务应用中具有广阔前景。

According to the analyses on the synoptic situation,satellite image,radar echo and AWS data,it is found that there is a vortex self-organization process during a record-breaking torrential rainfall in Shanghai on 25 August 2008.A surface mesoscale low develops during the heavy rainfall,which has a close connection with the organization and combination of meso-and micro-scale vortices.Growing of the surface low stirs up the intensive precipitation and brings Shanghai city with the record-breaking heavy rainfall.The process that forecasters applied the vortex self-organization theory on the forecast of the heavy rainfall is also detailed,which promises the theory＇s broad prospect on operational forecasting.