全球化背景下中国粮食供求区域均衡:对国家粮食安全的启示

Regional Equilibrium of Chinese Grain Supply and Demand under Globalization:Implications for National Grain Security

中国—世界农业区域市场均衡模型(CWARMEM)是一个多市场多区域的以中国粮食问题为重点研究对象的全球农业市场政策分析模型。本文描述了CWARMEM模型的结构、特征以及建模过程,并应用该模型对全球化背景下中国粮食供求区域均衡变化趋势进行情景模拟研究,在此基础上分析了人口、资源、经济等因素变动对我国未来十年粮食安全局势的影响。到2020年全球粮食产需将维持稳定增长,但是贸易规模难以扩大;我国粮食产量将能实现粮食安全规划目标,但自给率却低于95%,其中稻谷和玉米的自给率下滑对于粮食自给率的影响较大;国内各省份间供求差异更趋显著。确保粮食安全,应注重国内各省份协调与责任分担机制,善用国内外两个市场以实现我国粮食供求平衡。

Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model(CWARMEM) is a multi-market and-region global agriculture-market policy analysis model.This article describes the structure,characteristics and modeling of CWARMEM,then applies it for simulating the regional equilibrium of Chinese grain supply and demand under globalization.Based on the above,it analyzes the effects of the changing factors such as population,resources and economics on China's grain security in the next 10 years.In 2020,the world's grain supply and demand will maintain stable growth,while the trade will be hard to expand;Chinese grain output will achieve the grain security planning objectives,but the self-sufficiency rate will be less than 95% mostly affected by the self-sufficiency rate slip of rice and corn;the differences of supply and demand among provinces will be increasingly significant.To ensure the grain security objectives,it suggested setting up coordination and burden-sharing mechanism among provinces,and exploiting the internal and external markets to attain Chinese grain balance.