用生命周期概念分析滑坡动态规律

Slope Dynamic Rule Analyzed by Life Cycle Concept

根据滑坡具有生长、成熟、消亡的过程,提出滑坡生命周期的概念,并在单个生命周期内分析滑坡动态变化规律,用滑坡稳定性系数描述滑坡周期性变化,讨论滑坡随时间的动态性、阶段性、渐进性的特征。把稳定性系数划分为趋势项、周期项、随机项并用数学的方法拟合分析,建立同态模型。模型对滑坡预测、预报有一定的参考作用。

The concept of slide life cycle was suggested based on the fact that there was the whole process of birth, grow and death for slide. Its dynamic rule was analyzed during its single life cycle and the periodical change was described by the stability coefficient, then its characteristics of dynamic, phasical and progressive with time change was discussed. The stability coefficient was divided into tendency, periodic and random and was analyzed by fitting, the homomorphic model was founded, which was provided as the reference for slide forecast.