沈阳近48年最大连续降水量变化分析

Analysis of the Maximum Continuous Precipitation Variation in Shenyang in 48 years

[目的]分析沈阳近48年来最大连续降水量的变化。[方法]采用沈阳1961～2008年5～9月的日降水资料,利用一元线性趋势估计和小波分析对各月最大连续降水量进行分析。[结果]沈阳最大连续降水量在1990年以后出现极值的频率加大。5～9月最大连续降水总量的下降总趋势与1990年前后具有一致性,表现出最大连续降水总量的下降将随时间的推移有进一步下降的趋势。沈阳5～9月最大连续降水总量存在着5年左右的时间尺度周期,其在1973年出现历史最大值,2000年出现历史最小值。[结论]该研究对深入了解沈阳的气候变化特征以及极端天气气候事件的防灾减灾具有重要的现实意义。

[Objective] The aim was to study the changes of maximum continuous precipitation in Shenyang in recent 48 years.[Method] By dint of the daily precipitation from May to September from 1961 to 2008 and according to simple linear trend estimates and microwave analysis,the maximum consecutive precipitation in each month was analyzed.[Result] The frequency of extreme value for the maximum consecutive precipitation in Shenyang increased since 1990.The decreasing trend of maximum consecutive precipitation from May to September was consistent with that around 1990.The decrease of maximum consecutive precipitation amount had tendency to decrease along with the passing of time.There was 5 years temporal scale period of maximum consecutive precipitation from May to September in Shenyang,Maximum value occurred in 1973 and the minimum value occurred in 2000.[Conclusion] The study had important reality meaning to the understanding of climate changes in Shenyang and disaster prevention and relief work of extreme climate incidents.