两场短时强降水过程的对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Two Short-time Strong Precipitation Processes

采用概念模型预报法,从降水实况、天气形势、物理量特征、雷达回波演变等方面,对2008年6月12和14日厦门的两次短时强降水过程进行对比分析。结果表明,这两场短时强降水过程具有完全不同的天气背景,因而反映大气热力、动力特征的各种物理量表现不同,其雷达回波特征及演变过程也有所不同,说明厦门的两次强降水过程有不同的形成机制和演变过程。因此,预报中要结合多种资料准确把握预报着眼点。

By means of conceptual model prediction,two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen on June 12th and 14th,2008 were analyzed from the aspects of real precipitation,weather situation,physical parameter and radar echo.The results showed that two short-time strong precipitation processes had complete different weather backgrounds,so physical quantities which could reflect atmospheric thermal and dynamic characteristic were different,as well as radar echo and evolution process,and it revealed that two short-time strong precipitation processes in Xiamen had various formation mechanisms and evolution processes.Therefore,many data should be combined in prediction to grasp vantage points.