基于GIS的海南岛台风灾害致灾因子危险性分析

Analysis of Risks in Hainan Island Typhoon Hazard Factor Based on GIS

[目的]对海南岛台风灾害致灾因子危险性进行分析。[方法]以自然灾害评价的理论和方法为出发点和支撑点,选取台风灾害发生较为严重的海南岛为研究对象,采用1949～2009年台风灾害数据库相关资料,以台风致灾因子发生的频次、日最大降雨量、台风的大风潜在破坏力为评价指标,建立台风灾害危险性评价指标体系,利用GIS技术绘制海南岛台风灾害致灾因子危险性区划图,并进行等级划分。[结果]台风在海南岛发生较为频繁,其年际变化无一定的规律性,月际变化主要发生在6～10月份。台风登陆频次高危险区主要分布东部沿海一带;年均日降雨量呈现由中部山区向四周递减的规律;台风潜在破坏力的高危险区出现东部、南部、西部沿海;低危险区主要出现在中部地区;海南岛台风灾害综合致灾因子危险性由东部地区向西部地区逐渐减小,各等级分布面积呈现低危险区>中等危险区>较高危险区>次低危险区>高危险区。[结论]该研究为政府部门统一组织和指挥防灾救灾工作提供科学依据。

[Objective] The aim of this paper was to analyze the risks in the typhoon hazard factors in Hainan Island.[Method] Taking the theory and method of natural disasters evaluation as starting point and supporting point,and selecting Hainan province as the research target,where the typhoon disaster occurred relatively serious,based on the typhoon data during 1958-2008,with happening frequency of typhoon hazard-formative factors,maximum rainfall,potentially devastating effects of typhoon winds as evaluation indexes,the typhoon disaster risk evaluation index system and evaluation model were established.And by dint of GIS technique,Hainan island typhoon disaster risk zoning of hazard-formative factors and grading were prepared.[Result]Typhoon occurred frequently in Hainan and there were no certain rules of its annual changes.The monthly changes mainly happed during July to October.The highly dangerous area of typhoon mainly distributed in east coast area.The annual daily precipitation decreased from central mountainous area to the surroundings;typhoon hided in the destructive highly risked area in east,south and west area;low disastrous area occurred in the middle area;the risks of disastrous factors weakened from east area to west area.The distribution area of each level was that low dangerous area mild dangerous area highly dangerous area secondary low dangerous area highly dangerous area.[Conclusion] The study supplied scientific reference for the government in the united organization and direction of disaster relief work.