基于Divisia分解法的碳排放因素分解研究——以广东省为例

Study on the Carbon Emission Factors in Guangdong Province based on Divisia Decomposition Method

[目的]分解研究广东省碳排放量的影响因素。[方法]基于Johan提出的碳排放量公式,采用对数平均权重的Divisia分解法(LMD),对广东省1996～2009年影响碳排放量的3大因素(能源结构、能源效率和经济发展)进行实证研究。[结果]经济发展是导致广东省碳排放量持续大量增加的主要原因;能源效率的提高是广东省减少能源消耗、降低碳排放量的重要手段;能源消费结构的调整和优化对于降低广东省碳排放量的潜力巨大。[结论]广东省的碳排放量在今后很长一段时间内将继续增长,在制定今后的发展战略中,要特别注意保持经济与环境的和谐发展。

[Objective] The research aimed to decompose and study the influence factors of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.[Method] Based on the formula for the carbon emissions which was put forward by Johan,three factors（the energy structure,energy efficiency and economic development） which affected the carbon emissions during 1996-2009 in Guangdong Province were studied by using LMD.[Result] The economic development was the main reason that caused the continuous significant increase of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.The improvement of energy efficiency was the important manner for decreasing the energy consumption and the carbon emissions.The adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure had the huge potential for reducing the carbon emissions in Guangdong Province.[Conclusion] The carbon emissions in Guangdong Province would continue to increase in the future for a long time.When formulating the development strategy in the future,it needed pay special attention to keep the harmonious development of economy and environment.