金融危机对实体经济影响:危机溢出和跨国传导

The Impact of Financial Crisis on Real Economy:Crisis Spillover and Transnational Transmission

在金融部门存在扭曲和经济结构呈现刚性的环境中,不可持续的经济失衡、资产价格或是汇率目标对均衡水平的大幅偏离,都有可能引发金融危机。由于金融部门和实体经济之间存在的正反馈机制,伴生金融危机的经济衰退往往面临更加深幅的调整。与股市泡沫相比,住房融资体系的发展和金融加速器的作用也会放大房价泡沫对实体经济的溢出效应。由于贸易一体化和金融一体化会强化金融危机的跨国传染,后危机时代亟需完善国内经济管理和国际经济协调,以在获取全球化增长红利的同时最大限度地降低国际金融危机对实体经济的冲击。

In a context of financial sector distortions and structural rigidities, a financial crisis is often originated from the buildup of unsustainable economic imbalance and misalignment in asset price or exchange rate. On account of the positive feedback mechanism between financial sector and real economy, a financial crisis can make recession more severe than it would be otherwise. Compared with stock price bust, development in housing finance and effect of financial accelerator shall amplify spillovers from house price bust. As Increasing trade and financial integration has been facilitating transnational transmission of finan- cial crisis, post-crisis era is crying for improving economic management at home as well as international economic cooperation in order to yield growth dividend of globalization and make economy less vulnerable to shock of financial crisis.