基于投入产出法的对外贸易比较优势变化研究——兼论对外贸易顺差形成

The Analysis on the Changes of Comparative Advantage in China's International Trade Based on Input-output Method

本文从经典的HOV模型入手,运用投入产出法,分析我国1997以来的对外贸易。通过对1997～2007年(投入产出表最新数据)的对外贸易的资本劳动消耗进行计算。实证结果表明:我国的对外贸易比较优势处于资本比较优势正在形成的时期,对外贸易顺差扩大是结构升级中的暂时现象。并提出应抓住资本优势加大产业结构调整的力度,促进产业结构升级的建议。

This paper started from the classical HOV model,analyzed the international trade of china in recent year using by input-output method,and calculated the capital and labor consumption of the trade goods.The empirical results show that：the capital comparative advantage of China had emerged,and the labor comparative advantage still worked in the foreign trade of China.The expansion of export surplus was temporary.At last,according to the results,it gave some relative advices to promote the industry structure upgrading effectively.