摘要
本文通过灰色关联分析和VECM深入研究了我国固定资产总投资、各个产业投资与GDP以及各产业产值的关系。结果发现我国固定资产投资对经济增长的影响很大,第三产业投资对第一产业和第三产业产值的关联程度很大;而第三产业产值对各业投资的依存程度较强。固定资产投资是经济增长的格兰杰原因,经济增长却不是固定资产投资的格兰杰原因。我国经济应该在增强自身内生发展能力下功夫。
This paper deeply examine the relationship between industry outputs and industry investment through grey correlation analysis and VECM model.Results indicate that fixed investments have dramatic influence on economic growth.And interdependence between the third industry investment and outputs of the first and third industry is very large,while the output of the third industry depend to a large extent on the third industry investment.Fixed investment is the Granger casualty of economic growth,but the other direction casualty is not found.We should concentrate our efforts on strengthening endogenous development capacity.
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
2011年第4期67-71,共5页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
关键词
灰色关联分析
经济增长
脉冲反映
方差分解
grey correlation analysis
economic growth
impulse response
variance decomposition
