借鉴经济周期波动理论探索城市稳定持续发展之路

Probe into a Stabe and Sustainable Way of Urban Development by Using the Experience of Economic Periodic Fluctuation Theory

经济增长与城市发展都不是一个直线上升的过程。本文从经济学中经济周期波动理论含义入手，分析了经济周期波动与城市发展的互动关系，并通过我国建国以来经济总量增长以及城币发展中大起大落的“强波”现象的实证分析，探索了抑制“强波”，寻求城市持续、稳定发展的几条途径：①抑制过高过快的发展速度，防范虚假繁荣；②走内涵发展的道路，摆脱粗放型的发展方式；③优化政策，理顺政府职能，依法行政；④抓住世界格局中的机遇；⑤积极创新。

Beginning with the concept of economic periodic fluctuation theory in economics, this paper analyzes the interaction relationship between this kind of fluctuation and urban development. By analyzing the periods of GDP's changes and relevant phenomenon of urban construction, it points out several routes of controlling the fluctuation of urban construction and finding a stable and sustainable way of urban development, which includes developing speed, developing method, policies and administration, developing opportunities in world economic competition, and innovation, etc..