中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

Economical and Environmental Analysis of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Systems in China

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大。但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素。本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对并网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析。结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间。即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争。在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用。激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效。光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额。经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh。本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值。

Solar energy has become recognized as the most ideal alternative energy around the world,and its application is expanding increasingly.However,the high cost of photovoltaic power generation systems is a key constraining factor.In this paper,China＇s 34 provincial capital cities were taken as cases to study the economic and environmental benefits of the grid-connected PV power generation system using the net present value and the single factor sensitivity analysis tools.The results show that： the net cost of photovoltaic power generation is still between 0.83-2.29 yuan/kWh when at present the government subsidies half of the initial investment.That means even in areas with the richest solar radiation,grid-connected PV power generation still cannot compete with the conventional energy generation in cost.Among the influencing factors for the cost of photovoltaic power generation systems,the level of government subsidies for initial investment,global solar radiation on horizontal surface and intensity of investment are the most sensitive factors for the cost of PV system;CDM fund has a positive effect on reducing the general cost.So the introduction of a suitable,stable feed-in price should be the most effective incentive for the development of domestic PV market.Environmental benefit of PV systems refers to the balance of environmental benefit from emission reduction in monetary value minus environmental costs of the photovoltaic power generation system.PV power has significantly benefited the environment with the environmental benefit of 0.0165 yuan/kWh.This study wants to provide a reference for the government to develop incentive policies and PV power generation cost-sharing mechanism.