人口长期均衡发展及其评价监测模型的构建与应用

Construction and Application of the Model for Monitoring,Measuring and Evaluating long-term balanced development of the population

在借鉴已有理论的基础上,界定了人口长期均衡发展的内涵,提出人口长期均衡包含人口内部均衡和人口外部均衡两个方面,人口内部均衡包括人口数量、人口质量和人口结构三个维度,人口外部均衡包括人口与经济、人口与社会、人口与资源、人口与环境四个维度;在此基础上构建了人口长期均衡发展的指标体系和评价模型,指标体系设定为三级,第一级包括人口内部均衡和人口外部均衡两个方面,第二级由人口数量、人口质量、人口结构等七个部分构成;第三级指标包括反映内部均衡的7个指标以及反映外部均衡的13个指标,并使用层次分析法确定了指标的权重;采用2000-2007年31个省级单位的数据对人口长期均衡发展评价模型进行了验证,并对人口总体均衡水平以及影响人口均衡发展的关键要素进行了实证分析。结果表明,北京、上海和浙江分列前三,人口均衡发展程度最高。从影响均衡程度的关键因素看,人口质量和人口结构是制约人口自身均衡的主要因素,人口与社会的均衡状况对人口与外部系统均衡制约最大,其次是人口与经济的均衡状况。

This paper identified the meaning of the long-term balanced Development of the population,developed the set of monitoring and measuring indicators for population development,By using time series and cross-section data with population development-relevant indications in 31 Chinese provinces,it conducted empirical testing for the model,and results indicated that beijing,shanghai and zhejiang were the first three provinces with the high level of balanced population;the quality and the constructure of the population were the main factors in the population inner balance system;and in the outer populaition balance system,the relationship between population and sociality was the key factor,and the relationship between population and economy was the second one.