基于SWAT模型的沙澧河流域径流模拟

Runoff simulation of Shali River basin based on SWAT model

基于SWAT构建沙澧河流域分布式水文模型,通过LA-OAT法进行参数敏感性分析,借助数字滤波技术分割基流;以1997—2002年实测流量对各径流成分进行参数率定和验证;初步分析了35种气候变化情景对径流的影响.研究结果表明率定期和验证期总径流模拟相对误差、相关系数和Nash系数分别为-4.3%、0.82、0.73和19%、0.94、0.87.多情景分析表明,降水增加和温度降低将有利于径流增加,其中,最有利的情景为降雨增加15%,温度降低2℃,径流将增加25%.研究成果将为该流域未来水资源规划与管理提供参考.

A distributed hydrological model for the Shali River basin is built based on SWAT,in which sensitivity analysis of parameters is done with LA-OAT method.Base flow is separated by digital filter.Runoff components are calibrated and validated by observed flow from 1997 to 2002.The hydrological effects of climate changes are analyzed based on 35 kinds of climate change scenarios.The relative error,correlation coefficient and Nash coefficient of total runoff are-4.3%,0.82,0.73 and 19%,0.94,0.87 during calibration and validation period.The multi-scenario analysis shows that the precipitation increase and temperature decrease are in favor of runoff increase,in which the most favorable scenario is that runoff increased 25% when precipitation increase of 15% and temperature decrease of 2℃;the results can provide reference for future water planning and management.