大型供水工程预报调度模型系统研究

Study on model system for forecast and regulation of large scale water supply project

建立了大型供水工程预报调度模型系统，包括由ＧＭ（１，１），ＡＲＭＡ（２ｎ，２ｎ－１）等模型组成的来用水年、月、旬组合预报模型，水源水库和供水区水库自优化模拟调度模型及水库余留库容模糊决策模型等；提出了水库余留库容模糊决策方法．经实例验证计算，表明该模型系统是可行的．

A new model system for the forecast and regulation of largescale water supply project is developed.This system consists of a series of models such as GM(1,1),ARMA(2 n ,2 n -1) and two different self optimal simulation models and so on.A new algorithm based on fuzzy decision making,is proposed for the remaining capacity of reservoirs.The results of case study prove this model system is feasible.