后危机时代我国区域出口贸易战略的调整——基于东中西三大区域面板模型的分析

CHINESE FOREIGN TRADE STRATEGIES ADJUSTMENT DURING THE POST-CRISIS ERA:EVIDENCE BASED ON A REGIONAL PANEL DATA MODLE

国际金融危机对我国区域出口贸易影响主要来自需求因素、供给因素与阻力因素的冲击。通过面板模型分析,结果显示外部需求锐减、劳动力成本上涨是导致我国出口贸易骤减的重要原因。从区域层面看,国外收入水平下滑、劳动力成本上涨、投资下降对东部地区出口波动影响显著,需求减少与原材料价格波动是中部地区出口受挫的主要原因,劳动力成本上涨与FDI是西部地区出口下滑的重要因素。在后危机时代,我国应加快对外贸易转型升级,优化东部地区出口贸易结构,培育中西部地区产业转移承接能力。

We argue that demand shocks,supply shocks and resistance shocks,which originated from the world economic recession,have made distinguished negative consequences on China’s export.Our country-wide panel data model provides robust evidence which strongly proves that demand shocks and the increasing labor cost（one of the main resistance shocks） are the reasons of China’s export shrink.From regional perspective,our regression results suggest that declined foreign demand,increased labor cost and investment cut-down caused the East region’s export shrink,whereas demand shocks and fallen material price to the Middle region,increased labor cost and fallen FDI to the West region.In the coming post-crisis era,we suggest China should accelerate the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade structure.Regionally,the tasks of optimizing the East region’s export structure and nurturing the Middle’s and the West’s undertaking abilities for nationwide industrial transfer would be urgent.