宣威男性肺癌危险状态分析研究

Risk state analysis on lung cancer of male in Xuanwei,China

本文对１９７６～１９９６年宣威肺癌病因学干预试验研究数据库中男性人群的原始记录进行了分析。运用状态风险分析理论，选择生活燃料（包括改炉改灶）、吸烟和慢性支气管炎病史为伴随变量，建立了宣威男性肺癌的危险状态分类模型。该模型可对人群及个体患肺癌危险度进行评价，有助于确定肺癌高危人群和高危个体，为指导当地肺癌的预防提供科学依据。

The analysis of lung cancer risk factors among male population was based on the data of a retrospective cohort study conducted during 1976～1996 in Xuanwei,China.The results verified that the indoor air pollution from burning smoky coal was the main cause of high lung cancer mortality,and found that cigarette smoking was also significantly related with the lung cancer mortality.Using risk state analysis theory,fuel types(including household stove improvement),smoking and the history of chronic bronchitis were selected as the covariance for the analysis.A risk state analysis model for male lung cancer in Xuanwei was established.The model can be used to quantitatively estimate the risk of lung cancer and to determine high risk population and individuals.The model is helpful for the prevention of lung cancer in Xuanwei.