我国物价与货币供应量关系及货币政策选择

The Relationship Between Price and Money Supply in China and the Monetary Policy Selection

针对我国当前物价波动与货币供应量变化情况,利用1996年1月—2010年6月的月度数据,对物价与货币供应量的关系进行实证检验,实证结果表明,物价波动与货币供应量之间存在协整关系,且不同意义上的货币供应量与物价波动变量存在不同程度的协整关系。应采取适时变动存款准备金率、灵活推行公开市场业务、加强窗口指导和信贷政策指导等措施来实现物价稳定和国民经济平稳运行的宏观经济调控目标。

Aiming at the current situation of price variations and changes in the money supply,this paper makes an empirical verification on the relationship between price and money supply by using the monthly data from January 1996 to June 2010 in China.We find that there is a cointegrated relationship between price volatility and money supply,and the degree of cointegration relationship is different.In order to achieve smooth operation of price and national economy,China should timely change reserve requirements rates,flexibly launch open market operation,strengthen moral persuasion and credit policy guidance.