夏河甘加草原宽须蚁蝗种群动态模型研究

Study on dynamic models for estimating Myrmeleotettix palpates population in Xiahe

宽须蚁蝗是夏河甘加草原的优势蝗虫种类之一,利用夏河甘加草原连续7年的观测数据,选择2旬前(t-2)的气温(x1)、本年孵化期气温(x2)、本年孵化期降水(x3)、2旬前(t-2)的降水(x4)和上年高峰值(x5)为关键因子,建立了表示宽须蚁蝗第t旬发生量(y)的种群动态模型:y=0.210 6-0.0190x1t+0.001 3x1x2x3+0.004 6x4x5,拟合度较高,可用于夏河甘加草原宽须蚁蝗发生的预测。

Myrmeleotettix palpates is one of dominant grasshopper species in Xiahe.Based on the data from 7 years survey,the temperature（x1） and rainfall（x4） of t-2 period of ten days,hatch period temperature（x2） and rainfall（x3） in current year,and the peak value of population in previous year（x5） were selected as key factors to develop the population dynamic model：y=0.210 6-0.019 0 x1 t＋0.001 3x1x2x3＋0.004 6x4x5.The estimated results showed that the model could predicate the true population at high significant level.