探析江苏经济发展变化的源泉:基于SDA的分析

Research on Sources of Economic Development for Jiangsu Province:Based on SDA Analysis

本文采用结构分解分析SDA模型对1990-2005年江苏省经济发展变化的源泉进行了实证研究。主要结论:第一,江苏经济增长长期主要靠消费拉动,中期则更多地依赖投资驱动;第二,技术变化长期对降低三次产业中间消耗需求发挥了显著作用,但中期对第一、第二产业的影响不大;第三,技术进步改善了对绝大多数行业的中间消耗,尤其是对采掘业和资本密集型制造业;第四,消费对现代服务业的促进作用较大,而资本形成对采掘业及部分资本密集型、技术知识密集型行业影响较大;第五,煤炭采选业、电力等行业总产出的变化受制于省际间净调出变化,而服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造业受净出口增加的影响,充分反映出江苏资源、市场两头在外的经济结构特征。

This paper conducts an empirical study on the sources of changes of economic development for Jiangsu province from 1990-2005 with SDA model.Main conclusions are as follows： First,economic growth is driven mainly by consumption in the long term and by investment in the mid term.Second,technology progress plays a great role in decreasing the intermediate consumption demand of three industries in the long term,but the influences on the primary and secondary industry in the mid term are not obvious.Third,technical progress reduces the intermediate consumption of most industries,especially the excavating industry and capital-intensive manufacturing industries.Fourth,consumption has a large promoting effect on modern services,while capital formation has a large effect on excavating industry and some capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries.Fifth,the inter-provincial net moving change has a great effect on the outputs of coal and mining industry and power industry,and the net export increment has a large effect on clothing,leather and other fiber products manufacturing,which fully reflects the economic structure characterized by both resources and market outside of Jiangsu province.