基于可拓决策的环境安全预警模型及应用--以陕西省为例

Early-warning Model of Environmental Security and Its Application Based on Extension Decision——A Case Study of Shaanxi Province

预警模型的建立是环境安全预警的核心。针对环境安全多层次、多维度、动态性的特性,基于物元分析建立环境安全物元模型,利用可拓集合和关联函数,进行安全等级划分、预警指标阈值确定、安全度计算和安全状态判定,建立基于综合决策的环境安全预警模型。通过对陕西省2010年环境安全预警的实例分析,表明其环境安全处于轻警状态,且具有向无警状态转化的趋势,与实际情况基本相符,为环境安全管理和风险控制提供了决策依据。

Environmental security is currently a major issue on sustainable development of human society,and early-warning is the focus of environmental security study.In view of the multi-level,multi-dimensional and dynamic nature typical of environmental security,starting from identifying system security elements,based on matter-element analysis,this paper establishes a matter-element model for environmental safety.It is to conduct an environmental safety grading,early warning criteria establishment and safety determinants according to extension set and dependent function.Studies show that environmental security was in the warning level in 2010 for Shaanxi Province and the warning level is degrading.This is in consistency with the actual situation of Shaanxi Province,which indicates that the method is effective and feasible.This paper provides a scientific basis for decision-making in the environmental management,and has certain reference significance in establishing and researching environmental safety warning system.