磁暴活动与云南新一轮地震活跃期分析

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAGNETIC STORM AND NEW-ROUND SEISMIC ACTIVE PERIOD IN YUNNAN

对通海地磁台记录的磁暴(K指数≥5)年频次分析发现,磁暴活动的周期有强弱之分,与云南省地震活跃期和平静期对比分析看到,磁暴活动较强的周期时段与云南地震的活跃期相对应,磁暴活动较弱的周期时段与云南地震活动平静期相对应。目前,云南地震平静期已持续15年,即将进入第Ⅴ活跃期,大震发生的危险逐日增强。磁暴发生的数目和太阳活动有着密切的关系,太阳活动极大年磁暴多,太阳活动极小年磁暴少。现太阳黑子数处于低谷转斩段,2011年后将增强,磁暴活动也会有所增强。跟踪磁暴活动,关注磁暴发生的频次及磁暴周期的由弱转强,对预测云南新一轮地震活跃期的来临有着重要意义。

Through the analysis on the annual frequency of magnetic storm（index K≥5）recorded by Tonghai geomagnetic station,the magnetic storm periods is different according to their strong and weak,which were echo with the active period of strong earthquakes in Yunnan region,that means magnetic storms active periods correspond with the earthquakes active periods and the weaker periods correspond with the earthquakes quiet periods.Yunnan earthquake activity will enter No.V active period after 15 years quiet of Ms≥6.7 earthquakes.So the danger of strong earthquakes is increasing.The number of magnetic storms has close relationship with solar activity,the maximum year of solar activity had more magnetic storms and the minimum year of solar activity had less magnetic storms.The solar maculae numbers are at valley and transition phase now,which will increase after 2011.The magnetic storms activity will boost up incidentally.We should focus on the frequency of magnetic storms and its period changing from weak to strong,this will mean a lot in forecasting the new active period of strong earthquakes in Yunnan region.