西部经济增长与二氧化碳脱钩关系的实证分析——以甘肃省为例

Empirical Analysis of the Tapio Decoupling of Western Provincial Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide with Gansu Province as a Case

以Tapio脱钩模型研究甘肃省经济增长与二氧化碳排放量之间的关系为着眼点,把二氧化碳脱钩程度作为发展低碳经济的衡量标准。首先根据徐国泉等人改进的二氧化碳计算方法推算出1994—2008年期间甘肃省典型经济部门的二氧化碳排放量,证明甘肃省经济增长与二氧化碳脱钩的研究可以由工业经济增长与二氧化碳脱钩的研究来替代,并以此为基础,运用Tapio脱钩指标对甘肃省工业经济增加值与二氧化碳排量之间进行了脱钩分析,进而得出甘肃省国民经济的支柱产业呈现出GDP与二氧化碳排量之间的弱脱钩状态。

With the Tapio decoupling model, this paper focuses on the relation between the economic growth and the carbon dioxide emissions in Gansu province, taking the decoupling level of carbon dioxide as a measure of low-carbon economy development. At first, according to the calculation method of carbon dioxide improved by Xu Guoquan and others, we have calcnlated the carbon dioxide emission of typical economic sectors from 1994 to 2008 in Gansu province. Through this we can prove that the research of the economic development and the decoupling of carbon dioxide can be replaced by the one of the industrial economic growth and the deeoupling of carbon dioxide. Based on this conclusion, the author analyses the relation between the added value of industrial economy and the carbon dioxide emission in Gansu, employing the Tapio deeoupling indicator, the result of which can be seen as the fact that there is a weak deeoupling between the carbon dioxide emissions status and the GDP of the national economy＇s pillar industries in Gansu. This paper formulates a research paradigm for the low-carbon economy development in the underdeveloped western region with the heavy industry as the main body structure for the first time.