基于石油依赖性的中国经济国际竞争力研究

A Study of the International Competitiveness of China's Economy Based on Oil Dependence

基于中国经济发展现状和石油消耗状况,结合产业结构理论,分析中国经济国际竞争力的构筑和维持对于石油的依赖性的特征。通过构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,借助脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,实证研究表明石油依赖性对中国经济国际竞争力稳定性的影响大于美国,且影响持续期较长。结构优化,包括产业结构、行业结构、产品结构的优化,是降低石油依赖性、提高石油经济效率最终提升中国经济国际竞争力的有效路径。

According to the situation of e development and oil consumption in China, combining with the industrial structure theory, the characteristics of the dependence of building and maintaining the international competitiveness of China＇s economy on oil are analyzed. Through constructing VAR models and using impulse response functions and variance decomposition technique, the empirical study shows that comparing to the United States oil dependence does greater and longer harm to the stability of the international competitiveness of China＇s economy. Structural optimization, including the optimization of sector structure, industrial structure and product mix, is an effective path to reduce oil dependence, improve economic efficiency of oil and ultimately improve the international competitiveness of China＇ s economy.