捕获-标记-再捕获法在广东省广州市男男同性恋人群规模估计中的应用

Application of capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the size of male homosexual population in Guangzhou City of Guangdong Province

目的估计广东省广州市男男同性恋人群规模,探讨捕获-标记-再捕获法应用过程中的影响因素。方法应用捕获-标记-再捕获法对广州市男男同性恋人群规模进行估计。结果广州市男男同性恋人群显性人群规模数为3442人（1361~5522人）,隐性人群规模数为27 536人（10 888~44 176人）,总人群规模数为30 978人（12 249~49 698人）。结论运用捕获-标记-再捕获法对男男同性恋人群规模进行估计用时短,但难度较大,尤其在条件满足上较为困难,实施时应加以注意。

Objective To estimate the size of male homosexual population in Guangzhou City of Guangdong Province and analyze the application of capture-mark-recapture method.Methods The capture-mark-recapture method was applied in different activity places to estimate the size of male homosexual population in Guangzhou City.Results The estimation size of visible and hidden male homosexual population were 3442（1361-5522）and 27 536（10 888-44 176）respectively.The total number of male homosexual population was 30 978（12 249-49 698）in Guangzhou City.Conclusion Capture-mark-recapture is an economic and time-saved method for the size estimation of male homosexual population.More attention should be paid to the application conditions.