国际金融危机就业效应的投入产出分析

Input-output Analysis of the Impact of International Financial Crisis on Employment

本文分别利用2007年非竞争型投入占用产出模型和引入非线性因子的局部非线性投入产出模型,从受国际金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发,测算了国际金融危机对我国就业的影响。测算结果显示:在最近一年金融危机对我国就业影响是逐步加剧的;重点行业影响较为集中;由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确,刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响;同时,非线性就业弹性能够更准确的反应行业产值和就业人数之间的非线性关系,将其引入投入产出经典模型能使模型更好地反映真实经济情况。

Using 2007 non-competitive Input-occupancy-output model and a non-linear input-output model based on the employment elasticity,this paper estimates the impact of international financial crisis on employment in China from the terms of export and investment.The results show that： in the past yeart,he employment impact of the financial crisis in China is gradually intensified and concentrated in some key industries;due to the appropriate and timely macro-control policies,the economic stimulus plans largely offset the impact of the financial crisis;Meanwhile,the non-linear employment elasticity can reflect non-linear relationship between output and employment more accurately,and we introduce this non-linear employment elasticity into input-output model which can reflect the real economic situation better.