基于模糊理论的土石坝风险综合评价方法研究

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Risk of Earth-rock Dam Based on Fuzzy Logic

开展土石坝风险研究不仅能为大坝除险加固前期工作提供决策依据,而且可以通过比较加固前后大坝风险值,达到检验除险加固效果的目的。选取了与土石坝风险相关的八个指标:防洪能力、变形性状、渗流态势、生命损失、经济损失、社会环境影响、基础设施水平、管理水平,来构建土石坝风险综合评价指标体系;借鉴模糊数学的理论,建立了综合评价模型;最后根据综合评价的计算结果,可以判别土石坝目前所处的风险状态。利用该方法来评价门楼水库除险加固工程效果,取得了不错的成效,证明了该方法的可操作性与合理性。

Carrying out the study on the risk of earth-rock dams could not only provide decision-making for the previous works of reinforcement,but also achieve the purpose of testing the reinforcement effect through comparing the dam risk values before and after the reinforcement.Eight associated indexes are selected here to establish the comprehensive evaluation index system for the risk of earth-rock dams,such as the flood control capacity,deformation behaviors,seepage state,lost of life,lost of economy,social and environmental impacts,level of infrastructure,level of management.Then the theory of fuzzy mathematics is used to set up a comprehensive evaluation model.At last,according to the calculated results of the comprehensive evaluation,the risk state of an earth-rock dam is distinguished.Using this method to evaluate the reinforcement effect of Menlou Reservoir has achieved good results,which could confirm the operability and practicality of this method.