高速公路机电设备使用寿命预测模型

Service Lifetime Prediction Modeling for Expressway Electromechanical Equipments

中国对高速公路机电设备寿命的管理方法研究尚处于起步阶段,需要明确地制订出机电设备经济合理的使用寿命并及时对设备进行报废更新。本文在用Delphi法预测设备的物理寿命、用最小年平均费用法和低劣化数值法计算设备的经济寿命的基础上,提出了基于设备的物理寿命和经济寿命的综合预测新模型。利用Pareto原理确定综合预测模型的参数并计算出设备的使用寿命。通过实例分析,验证了本方法的有效性和实用性,可为高速公路机电设备的报废更新提供决策依据。

The lifetime management for expressway electromechanical equipment is short of predicting approach in China.Formulating the economic lifetime and reasonable service lifetime of electromechanical equipment is necessary to replace equipments timely and rapidly.A comprehensive prediction model of service lifetime was proposed based on physical lifetime and economic lifetime for the expressway electromechanical equipment in this paper.The physical lifetime of equipment was predicted by using Delphi method,and the economic lifetime of equipment was calculated by using the minimum annual mean cost method and the numerical degradation method.The parameter of proposed model was determined preliminarily by using Pareto principle for formulating the service lifetime of equipment.The effectiveness and practicality of the approach has been tested and verified by case study to the replacing of expressway electromechanical equipment.