农业剩余劳动力迁移方向预测方法研究

Research on Prediction Method Relating to of Surplus Agricultural Labor Force Migration Direction

以哈里斯-托达罗模型作为农业剩余劳动力移动方向预测模型,梳理了计算这个模型所需要的统计指标,研究每个统计指标的数据来源。对于需要通过抽样调查获得数据的统计指标,简要讨论抽取样本和构造估计量的方案。

This article treat Harris-Todaro Model as predicting model of movement direction of surplus agricultural labor force,reorganize statistical indicators needed to figure the model and research data sources of each statistical indicator.As for those statistical indicators needed to use sample survey to attain data this article discusses program of drawing sample and constructing estimator simply.