山东省生态安全状态评价与预测研究

Estimation and Prediction of Ecological Security Status of Shandong Province

基于驱动力-状态-响应模型(DSR模型),构建了山东省生态安全状态评价指标体系,对2000年—2008年山东省的生态安全状态及其变化进行了分析,运用灰色系统预测方法,构建GM(1,1)模型并对山东省未来的生态安全状态进行预测.研究结果显示,2000年—2008年山东省生态安全状态逐年改善,完成了从不安全向临界安全的过渡,2010年—2017年仍将保持逐年改善趋势,至2017年将达到生态安全水平.

Based on the driving force-status-response（DSR） model,the ecological security evaluation index system of Shandong Province is constructed,and the ecological security status and its dynamic change of Shandong Province are analyzed from 2000 to 2008.By using grey-system prediction,GM（1,1）model is established to predict Shandong＇s ecological security status in the future.Results show that from 2000 to 2008,ecological security status improves gradually,transiting from insecurity to less security;in prediction years from 2010 to 2017,ecological security status will keep improving and the status will be security by 2017.